This research investigates how factors such as prior programming experience (PE) and gender are linked with expectations for success and the perception of challenges among students in computing majors. We aim to explore their intentions to major in computing and how some of these factors change after CS1. Data was collected from an introductory programming course. Surveys were deployed at the course’s start and end that covered demographic and contextual factors related to expectations for success and perceptions of challenges. Application status for the computing major was also recorded. Patterns emerged linking gender, PE, and students’ perceptions. Men and students with PE indicated higher perceived potential for success, while women without PE were more likely to indicate concerns about intellectual ability. Men and students with PE reported facing fewer challenges, while students without PE and women reported perceiving fewer positive effects from these challenges. However, while gender appears in the preceding results, an intersectional analysis indicates that prior experience is the central factor. PE is linked to persistence in the field. Our results further highlight the importance of providing students with opportunities to develop experience, as it can help shape their expectations, perceived challenges, and retention in computing.